Backtest finding: the /teaser composite is inverted
for MLB. Highest-scored MLB runlines hit 70.8% (below the 76.7% break-even
for a 2-team teaser); lowest-scored hit 86%. The formula was following public
money onto favorite runlines that don't cover enough after the tease-through-zero.
Runline v1: only scores DOG +1.5 legs, teased to +2.5 (buy 1 run).
Backtest showed +1 buy hits 70.3% WR at ~-200 juice (BE ~64-69%) — best juice
per WR point. Score weights rating closeness (45%), public-money fade (35%),
sharp-kicker (15%), and a coin-flip bonus (5%). Public heavy on the fav =
good for us (contrarian dog play).
| Date | Game | Bet | Teased line | Odds | %$ / %# | Rating gap | V1 ↕ | V2 ↕ |
|---|